CLARITY Act: Trump Pushes Hard Before August Recess

A Senate vote on crypto market structure may happen next week.

President Trump is scheduled to meet with a group of senators at the White House on Thursday to discuss the CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill that lawmakers are pushing to clear the Senate floor before the August recess. Senator Bernie Moreno confirmed the meeting, saying the group would brief Trump on the bill and “its path to success.” Senator Cynthia Lummis is also expected to attend, per a Senate Republican aide.

Moreno’s framing is worth noting: “He’s the one who’s really driven the innovation that I think will pay dividends.” That is a politician crediting the president for momentum, which tells you something about where the lobbying pressure is coming from.

Why the Recess Deadline Is Real

Senator Thom Tillis, who has been working through the bill’s unresolved provisions, told Politico he hopes to reach agreement by end of this week. His reasoning is direct: lawmakers view August recess as the last realistic window before midterm election dynamics freeze legislation. Miss it, and the bill likely waits for a different Congress.

Lummis said on Fox Business Wednesday that a revised draft will drop within days and that she expects a Senate floor vote as early as next week. Lawmakers are still waiting on that revised text, which means the timetable is tight but not yet broken.

What Prediction Markets Are Pricing

Kalshi traders put a 79% probability on the CLARITY Act reaching a Senate vote before recess, up from 68.8% the day prior. That single-day jump shows positioning shifting fast on the news flow. A Senate vote and becoming law are different events, though, and the market knows it.

A $3 million Kalshi contract gives the bill a 36% chance of becoming law in 2026 and a 62% chance before the end of 2027. Polymarket is at 39% for this year. I’d read that spread as the market pricing in a Senate pass but heavy uncertainty about House conference, presidential signature timing, and the usual implementation lag. Prediction markets here are tracking narrative momentum as much as legislative fundamentals.

What Is Actually at Stake

Market structure rules matter most to the buyers who cannot act without them. The institutional shift into Bitcoin happened through ETFs precisely because that wrapper had regulatory clarity the broader market still lacks; the CLARITY Act would extend something similar to assets and venues beyond spot Bitcoin.

What to Watch

The revised draft is the near-term signal. If it drops this week and bipartisan objections (three senators have already raised ethics concerns) don’t force another round of rewrites, a floor vote before recess becomes plausible. If the text slips, the 79% Kalshi probability will compress just as fast as it expanded.

The open question isn’t whether the administration wants this done. Thursday’s White House meeting makes that clear. The question is whether the revised draft resolves enough of the outstanding disagreements to hold 60 votes on the floor.

This article is for information only and is not financial or investment advice. Markets are volatile and you can lose money. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor before making any decision.